Tag Archives: signs of the times

What would it look like if our leaders had lost control?

What would it look like if our leaders had lost control?

By David Malone

What would it look like if our leaders had lost control? What would be the signs? Here’s a list of some of the signs I think we would see.

The first sign would be that the measures our leaders had taken did not have the effect we were assured they would have. Not that they didn’t have some effect, after all you can’t subsidize banks with $16 Trillion without something happening.

But if the effect is not what they assured us it would be and moreover if the underlying problem they said the actions would fix, remains unfixed, then this is to me a simple and clear proof, not even a sign, a proof, that they don’t know what they are doing.

If a doctor gave you an antibiotic and said it would clear up the infection but instead your hair fell out while the infection roared on, what would you think of the doctor and his understanding of a) medicine and b) your disease?

And if the good doctor then pushed his way back to your bed side and began shouting down all other diagnoses and insisting that you be held down and forced to swallow another, larger dose, would you swallow it? Or would you have your friends take said doctor and throw him in to the street?

Part of our problem is that the veneer of control and understanding persists long after the actual substance has gone. So Mr King comes out today defending more QE [Quantitative Easing]. He is a reasonable and intelligent man so there is a strong temptation to believe he must know what he’s doing. If he says we need to take another dose of the medicine before it will finally have its advertised effect …. well he’s the doctor, right?

But the way I see it our bankers, financial experts and politicians have become like the rats, pigeons and monkeys that used to press bars for rewards in the Skinner boxes of 1950?s psychology experiments.

For those of you not familiar with the jargon of Skinner boxes and Operant Conditioning, it’s very simple. Wait until the animal does something you want it to do, such as peck at a button when a light comes on or press a bar, and then deliver a reward so that the animal associates the action with the reward. Simply reward the actions you want and the animal will learn to perform the actions you desire. It was found you could train animals to do the most amazing things.

More interesting it was found that once the animal had learnt what behaviour gave the reward, it would continue to press its bar long after the reward stopped being given. The animal had, so it was hypothesised, created a theory if it was an ‘higher’ animal, a ‘reinforced neural pathway’ if it was a ’lower’ one, and the behaviour became a learned habit.

Once the habit was ingrained the animal would persist in it no matter what. The rat or monkey would sit there grimly pressing its bar in the apparently dogged ‘belief’ that it had worked before it would work again. The scientists found that it took a long time for, to use the jargon, the behaviour to be extinguished.

The worst situation for the animals was what the researchers called ‘intermittent reward’. The scientists found they didn’t have to reward a behaviour every time for that behaviour to be learned and become ingrained.

As long as pressing the bar would occasionally give a reward then the animals would persist in it for longer and longer periods without any reward. They would just keep pressing it, long, long after any ‘untrained’ animal – a casual observer, would have concluded that bar pressing just didn’t work.

The poor trained animals had learnt that once upon a time this was the correct action to take and now had it firmly in mind that it was still the action that gave the desired outcome, it is just that you had to be determined and maintain confidence in the policy, not being blown off course by those who had lost faith, or those who had never seen the miracle of the bar pressing in all its former glory. And so on they would go starving in their corner pressing their bar.

The ‘better’ trained the animals were at pressing their bar the longer they keep at it in the face of overwhelming objective evidence of the failure of their actions.

Seems clear to me our leaders are just pressing that bar because they don’t have the imagination to think of anything else. They never did know why pressing the bar delivered the reward. Economics is a Skinner box, a black box, where no one can see and certainly none of them understands, the mechanism at work.

They have theories about the underlying rules and mechanisms and assumptions about human nature and the nature of economic behaviour. Their assumptions are almost all fatuous from any kind of evolutionary perspective. And their theories about the mechanisms are generally drawn from dubious first principles or based on correlations which they have noted – when this has happened in the past then this has followed. But sadly for them the correlations are very often ephemeral.

They hold true for a decade or two and then seem to stop being correlated. At which point a new correlation is elevated to the status of a new rule and the old rule is quietly no longer referred to. Like some embarrassing family member everyone pretends not to have heard from in ages and ages, if ever. ”Gosh, is he still alive. You know I always thought there was something not right about him.”

And so they continue to press the bar and attribute anything positive that subsequently happens to their bar pressing. While anything negative is attributed to not pressing it correctly or to malign external factors. If nothing happens, well press it again a bit harder. Remember confidence in the bar is the key to seeing the policy through!

When the proponents of pressing the bar start to disagree among themselves this, to me, is another sign that the end is approaching. Each still believes firmly in the magic properties of the bar and of pressing it.

But as they come to disagree more and more about how to press it – harder, softer, use some leverage, don’t use any leverage – and disagree about what the results are likely to be if successfully pressed, the fact of their disagreement starts to eat away at their collective faith in the bar and its magic. This is how paradigms collapse. And I believe we are in the early stages of that collapse.

The paradigm is not making sense even, I think, to some of the faithful.

The essence of the paradigm was that debt was not a problem because growth would take care of it. All that was required was to stimulate growth and pressing on the ‘Bail out the banks’ bar would take care of that. They have pressed and pressed and it has not delivered. In fact debt has got worse.

In ’09 banks would not lend to each other. We were told it was a liquidity problem. Our leaders refused point blank to even listen to any other ideas. They ignored or ridiculed those who said this was a crisis of solvency not liquidity, and ignored as outlandish and dangerous the idea that the reason banks wouldn’t lend to each other is because they all knew they had massive debts and that the assets/income stream underpinning all those debts was a lie.

But the truth is the assets were not worth what the banks claimed. And because the banks all knew this to be true they quite reasonably refused to accept each other’s assets as collateral and without collateral they would not loan.

Fast forward over two years during which, instead of cutting out the infected tissue of bad debts, we simply fed it all to National banks and what is the result? Now we have nations who won’t lend to each other. We now have a credit crunch at the sovereign level. And it will have the same effect it had last time but larger.

Now nations are starved of cash and via them whole national systems of the banks who were infected and starved of cash in 09 are at death’s door again. Only difference we, the peoples of these nations, are trillions more in debt than we were three years ago. Bravo! Bravo!

Meanwhile the monkeys in charge still won’t listen to any alternative ideas and are still at their sacred bar pressing it and telling themselves that one day soon it will work as it once did.

Courtesy of David Malone – http://www.golemxiv.co.uk

SOURCE

Timelime: 2010-2019

Timeline 2010 to 2019: Events
on the Calendar That Could
be Very Significant
– Bill Koenig

I will continue to add new information to our timeline as it is discovered and revealed. Never before have there been so many biblically significant events evolving at such a rapid pace.

  • The peace talks in Israel could lead to the Daniel 9:27 seven-year peace covenant and Benjamin Netanyahu could be the leader who would sign for Israel.
  • Major earth cycles pertaining to Israel, Jerusalem and the U.S. are beginning to occur in 2010 — with many converging in 2011; Eric Hadik has shared that with us, with more coming from him soon.
  • Accuweather’s Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicted a total of 16-18 storms this hurricane season that begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.
  • The back-to-back ‘blood-red’ total lunar eclipses on the first day of Passover and Sukkoth in 2014 and 2015 is very significant. Three previous sets of back-to-back “blood-red” lunar eclipses occurred right after/or at the time of a very trying times for Jews — with the last two being at the time of two major wars in Israel.The blood-red moons occurred on the first day of Passover and Sukkoth in the two years after the end of the Spanish Inquisition in 1492 (1493-1494), the two years after Israel’s War of Independence in 1948 (1949-1950), and the same year and the year after the Six-Day War in 1967 (1967-1968).

    The 2014 and 2015 back-to-back “blood-red” moons on the first day of Passover and Sukkoth will be the last time this century and the eighth time since Jesus Christ was on earth. (From Mark Biltz’s 2008 study: click here)

  • The 50th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem falls on May 27, 2017 (Sivan 2, 5778).
  • The 70th anniversary of Israel’s statehood falls on April 20, 2018 (Iyar 5, 5779).
  • A major earthquake, fitting the 14-year pattern, is expected in 2018 (more details below).
  • Wormwood.....
  • The Significance of the Time Frame

    The peace talks in Israel are moving into a very serious stage; there is an increasing chance that a Psalm 83 war, a major conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas, could be near — which could lead to their demise and the possible fulfillment of Isaiah 17:1 pertaining to the destruction of Damascus.

    The battle is intensifying over the city of Jerusalem; the relations of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey are becoming more problematic; there is a rapid movement towards biometric IDs; and the world is quickly moving towards one-world financial, political and religious order and is experiencing rapid moral decline.

    Earth Cycles Converging in 2010-2011, Playing Out Until 2018 – Eric Hadik
    Click here for Eric’s ‘Insiide Track’ web site

    Eric has shared with us in our recent news reports the converging of major earth cycles pertaining to the Kingdom of Jerusalem; Jerusalem wars; and April cycles pertaining to Israel and the U.S.

    He has said there is a new swarm of significant — and potentially catastrophic — volcanic eruptions expected from 2012-2014 with precursor eruptions expected in 2010 and 2011.

    He said that while much of current global economic attention has been focused on the so-called ‘PIIGS’ (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), the following discussion focuses on a global eruptive group of ‘PIIGS’ (Pacific, Italy, Iceland, Greece and South America) that are at the highest (cyclic) risk of major volcanic activity.

    Similar to the earthquake swarm cycles that have been detailed the past several years (and which portended major events in 2010/2011, including expectations for South American/Chilean earthquakes in the February/May/August/November 90-day-period time frames), the volcanic swarm cycle is also linked to the sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle that just bottomed in 2009 and is increasing now.

    However, it is the 22-year sunspot cycle (every other sunspot cycle when the sun’s polarity returns to where it was two cycles previously) that has been the most consistent and which augers major volcanic eruptions in Europe (northern and southern borders), South America (Chile, in particular) and the Pacific. However, the United States also plays into this analysis in the coming years.

    Major earthquakes cycles point to major events in 2011 and 2018 based on 14-year and 70-year cycles.

    Major record-setting worldwide earthquakes have occurred every 14 years since 1906. The years: 1906, 1920, 1934, 1948, 1962, 1976, 1990 and 2004.

    A major earthquake fitting the 14-year pattern is expected in 2018.

    The U.S. dollar: U.S. and world financial market cycles are converging from 2010 to 2014.

    ———

    We Have Potential Financial Implosions

    Note: These are not to alarm you but to keep our readers informed, prayerful and conservative. There has been a tremendous amount of money released into the banks by the Federal Reserve which has let to increased banking activities and stock market movement.

  • President Barack Obama is poised to increase the U.S. debt to a level that exceeds the value of the nation’s annual economic output, a step toward what Bill Gross of Pimco called a “debt super cycle.” The U.S. Federal deficit is at $13.7 trillion (11-26-2010).
  • The Wall Street Journal’s Jerry Seib writes that the federal budget deficit has become so large it’s time to consider it a natural security threat.
  • U.S. Commercial real-estate loans are the second-largest loan type after home mortgages. Banks hold more than half of the $3.4 trillion in outstanding commercial real-estate debt. Deutsche Bank AG has projected those commercial-real-estate losses for banks could end up being as high as $300 billion. (Oct. 15, 2009 – The Wall Street Journal)
  • Of the $1.4 trillion of commercial-real-estate debt coming due by the end of 2014, roughly 52% is attached to properties that are underwater (the money owed is more than the property is worth), according to debt-analysis company Trepp LLC. (Aug. 25, 2010 – The Wall Street Journal)
  • The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2009.
  • In fiscal 2011 and 2012 the U.S. states are expected to face another combined budget deficit of $260 billion, with the 2011 shortfall in places such as New Jersey, Illinois, Nevada and Arizona projected to be more than 35 per cent of last year’s budget according to the Financial Times.
  • Forty percent of U.S. junk bonds to default by 2013 according to Bank of America in September 2009.
  • The precarious financial derivatives exposure: A $670 trillion, high-risk, out-of-control casino that’s highly leveraged versus the $50 trillion total annual GDP of all nations. We forget that derivatives almost destroyed global economies in 2008-2009 and could once again by 2012.
  • In the three years beginning in 2012, more than $700 billion in risky, high-yield corporate debt will start to mature. And that could drop a hammer down on the junk bond market.
  • The European Central Banks (ECB’s) Financial Stability Review said in the first week of June that banks must renew about 800 billion euros ($950 billion) in debt by the end of 2012, and that they would be competing head-on with governments in the bond markets.”In view of the considerable near-term funding needs of euro area governments, a particular concern is the risk of bank bond issuance being crowded out, making it challenging to roll over a sizeable amount of maturing bonds by the end of 2012,” the central bank said.
  • Further economic collapse potential of other European countries. The U.S. is currently on the hook for up to $54 billion in the Greek bailout in a worse-case scenario.
  • The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress.
  • A new study obtained by CNBC says Americans are $6.6 trillion short of what they need to retire. The study, conducted by Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, says savings have been squeezed by declines in stock and housing values. (September 15, 2010)
  • The Pew Center on the States reported this year that in eight states, at least one-third of the future pension obligations for all public employees, including teachers, are unfunded. As of 2008, Pew said, state and local governments had pension obligations totaling $3.35 trillion — $1 trillion of that not covered by the future stream of government and employee contributions specified under current law. Only four states — Florida, New York, Washington and Wisconsin — had fully funded pension systems as of 2008.

    Timeline 2010 to 2019

    We will continue to add to the timeline as we discover more relevant events, dates and cycles.

    2010

  • January 12 – Haiti’s 7.0 earthquake
  • February 27 – Chile’s 8.8 earthquake
  • March 19 – Quartet (US, UN, EU and Russia) meets in Moscow and calls on Israel to stop construction in East Jerusalem, freeze settlement construction and begin proximity talks with the Palestinians.
  • March 20 – Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted for first time in 200 years.
  • Intelsat said it lost control of the Galaxy 15 satellite on April 5, possibly because the satellite’s systems were knocked out by a solar storm. Intelsat cannot remotely steer the satellite to remain in its orbit, so Galaxy 15 is creeping toward the adjacent path of another TV communications AMC-1 satellite that serves U.S. cable companies. This could be a precursor to the major solar storm expected on May 2013 when some of the world’s 940 satellites will be at risk.
  • April 14-19 – European air space shut down due to ash from Iceland volcano. Over 100,000 flights cancelled costing $1.7 billion in damages. The ashes spread over Europe during Europe’s Holocaust Remembrance Week (April 11-18).
  • April 19-20 – Israel’s Independence Day – “There is a confluence of two very worrying events,” said Michael Freund, a rightist columnist for The Jerusalem Post in a telephone interview. “One is the Iranian threat, an existential threat. Add to that the fact that for the first time in recent memory there is a president in the White House who is not overly sensitive to the Jewish state and its interests. You put the two together and it will affect anyone’s mood, even an optimist like me.”
  • April 20 – Indyk: Netanyahu must choose: Obama or his right-wing Likud Party.
  • April 20 – Major Gulf of Mexico oil spill begins at Horizon.
  • May 2 – Nashville flood damages estimated at $1.5 billion in that city alone, with more in Tennessee and Kentucky.
  • May 5-8 – George Mitchell in Jerusalem for peace talks.
  • May 5-13 – Iran, Syria and Hezbollah pounding the war drums. Iran developing cruise missile. Kicked off new “eight-day” war games and military maneuvers in the strategic Persian Gulf waters, the country’s second military show of force in less than a month.
  • May 10 – Greek debt crisis – EU and US commit $1 trillion to keep euro from collapsing.
  • May 11 – Russia considering providing nuclear energy technology to Syria and Turkey.
  • May 11 – Accuweather’s Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts a total of 16-18 storms this season. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.
  • May 31 – June 6 – Israel and Turkey at serious odds over flotilla incident. Turkey is continuing to align with Iran and Russia, which are key countries in the Gog and Magog force spoken of in Ezekiel 38-39. Israel being further isolated internationally.
  • King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited the White House on the 17th of Tammuz (June 29) to discuss Middle East peace and other issues.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House on July 6 and committed to peace talks as soon as possible with Palestinians security guarantees.
  • Obama restarts peace talks with a meeting at the White House on Sept. 1 and at the State Department on Sept 2. Netanyahu, Abbas, Egypt’s Mubarak and Jordan’s Abdullah II were in attendance.
  • Hillary Clinton goes to Jerusalem on Sept. 15 for meetings between the Israelis and the Palestinians.2011

    Netanyahu told the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) in New York on Thursday, July 8, 2010, that all core issues could be discussed in direct negotiations, and that if it were up to him, a peace deal with the Palestinians could be signed by the end of 2011.

  • April 19 – First Day of Passover.
  • May 9, 2011 (Iyar 10, 5771) – 63rd anniversary of Israel’s statehood.
  • Sunspot cycle’s will continue increasing in intensity.
  • Major earthquakes expected in January consistent with two-year and seven-year cycles.
  • Jerusalem war cycle.
  • Kingdom of Jerusalem cycle.
  • Earthquake cycle.
  • Volcano eruptions 2011 to 2013.2012
  • Solar storm cycles expected to increase the intensity of volcano eruptions, earthquakes and super storms and disrupt satellites and technologies on earth.
  • The satellite totals: US 437; Russia 95; China 58; Japan 44; India 22; Britain 21
  • A new swarm of significant — and potentially catastrophic — volcanic eruptions is expected from 2012-2014 with precursor eruptions expected in 2010 and 2011.
  • Wired Magazine: The 2012 apocalypse: The next period of intense solar activity is expected in 2012 and coincides with the presence of an unusually large hole in Earth’s geomagnetic shield.
  • U.S. Presidential and Congressional elections — November 2012.
  • In the three years beginning in 2012, more than $700 billion in risky, high-yield corporate debt will start to mature. And that could really drop a hammer down on the junk bond market.”An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this,” Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, told The New York Times.

    The result is a potential financial doomsday, or what bond analysts call a maturity wall. From $21 billion due this year, junk bonds are set to mature at a rate of $155 billion in 2012, $212 billion in 2013 and $338 billion in 2015.

  • Next in line are companies with investment-grade credit ratings. They must refinance $1.2 trillion in loans between 2012 and 2014, including $526 billion in 2012.2013
  • NASA says Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.”
  • The 1859 storm — known as the “Carrington Event” after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare — electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow.A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 trillion to $2 trillion in damages to society’s high-tech infrastructure and require four to 10 years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused “only” $80 to 125 billion in damages.
  • Under the Obama budget, interest would top 18 percent of revenue in 2018 and 20 percent in 2020, CBO projects. But under more adverse scenarios than the CBO considered, including higher interest rates, Moody’s projects that debt service could hit 22.4 percent of revenue by 2013.
  • About 40 percent of all U.S. junk bonds outstanding in late 2008 will likely default by 2013 as government aid measures end and a wall of corporate debt comes due, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009.2014

    Three previous back-to-back “blood-red” total lunar eclipses occurred on the first day of Passover and Sukkoth right after the 1492 Spanish Inquisition (in years 1493-1494), the 1948 War of independence (in years 1949-1950), and the 1967 Six-Day War (in the years 1967-1968), this pattern points to a very challenging time for Israel and war.

    The Jewish Talmud says, “When the moon is in eclipse, it is a bad omen for Israel … If its face is as red as blood, [it is a sign that] the sword is coming to the world …”

    The sages in the Talmud understood that a red lunar eclipse means that God will be bringing judgment to His people, Israel.

  • April 15 – Blood-red moon – First day of Passover (visible: Australia, Pacific, Americas).
  • Aug. 5 – 9th of Av.The sabbatical year in the seven-year cycle (2008 to 2015) begins on Rosh Hashanah on Sept. 25, 2014, and ends on Rosh Hashanah on September 13-14, 2015 — the day of a partial solar eclipse.
  • Oct. 8 – Blood-red moon – First day of Sukkot (visible: Asia, Australia, Pacific, Americas).2015
  • April 4 – Blood-red moon – First day of Passover (visible: Asia, Australia, Pacific, Americas).
  • July 26 – 9th of Av.
  • A seven-year cycle that began on Rosh Hashanah on Sept. 30, 2008, ends on Rosh Hashanah on Sept. 13-14, 2015. The sabbatical year from 2014 ends here, too.
  • Sept. 13 (Elul 10, 5776) – Partial solar eclipse on Rosh Hashanah.
  • Sept. 23 (Elul 20, 5777) – Year of Jubilee proclaimed on Yom Kippur.
  • Sept. 28 – Blood-red moon – First Day of Sukkot (visible: Eastern Pacific, Americas, Europe, Africa, Western Asia). 2016
  • Aug. 13 – 9th of Av.2017
  • May 27 (Sivan 2, 5778) – 50th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem, which occurred during Israel’s Six Day War victory.
  • November 2, 2017, will be the 100th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration. British Foreign Secretary, Arthur James Balfour, a Christian, called for the British Government to provide land for a future Jewish state.
  • December 11, 2017, will be the 100th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem. British General Edmund Allenby, a Christian, dismounted his horse, and entered Jerusalem on foot out of respect for the Holy City, to accept the surrender from Turkey on December 11, 1917.
  • Nov. 2 (Cheshvan 13, 5778) – 100th anniversary of the Balfour agreement.2018

    The “blood-red” lunar eclipse sequences of 2018 and 2019 fall on the Jewish holiday Tu B’shvat (New Year of Trees). This marks the beginning of the “new year” for trees.

    Tu B’Shvat is the New Year for the purpose of calculating the age of trees for tithing. The Torah states that fruit from trees which were grown in the land of Israel may not be eaten during the first three years; the fourth year’s fruit is for G-d, and after that, the fruit can be eaten. Each tree is considered to have aged one year as of Tu B’Shvat, no matter when in the year it was planted.

    It is customary to plant trees and partake of the fruits of the land of Israel to mark the occasion.

  • Jan. 31 – Blood-red moon – Tu B’shvat.
  • April 20 (Iyar 5, 5779) – 70th anniversary of Israel’s statehood –
    Yom Ha’atzmaut (national Independence Day of Israel).
  • July 27 – Blood-red moon – 15th of Av.
  • Major record-setting earthquakes have occurred every 14 years since 1906. The last one was the 9.0 Indian Earthquake/Tsunami in December 2004, which points to another one in 2018. 2019
  • Jan. 21- Blood-red moon – Tu B’shvat (visible: South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia).
  • ——

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